Global Temperatures in 2023 Will Be About 1.2°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels, UK Met Office Predicts

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A landscape in Wales on Apr 3, 2022, after March was the second sunniest month on record in the UK, according to Met Office. Sheena Parry-Davies / metoffice

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The annual global forecast from the UK’s Meteorological Office for the coming year indicates 2023 will be one of the hottest years ever for the planet.

With the average global temperature predicted to be from 1.08 to 1.32 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, it will be the tenth year in a row that the Earth’s average temperature has climbed to at least one degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, a press release from the Met Office said.

Leader of next year’s temperature forecast Dr. Nick Dunstone, who is a climate scientist with the Met Office, said that for the past three years La Niña has caused the sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific to be cooler than average and has had an overall cooling effect on the globe.

But that’s about to change.

“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022,” Dunstone said in the press release.

According to Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office professor Adam Scaife, 2016 was the hottest year since records began in 1850.

“2016 was an El Niño year where the global temperature was boosted by warmer waters in parts of the tropical Pacific. Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series,” Scaife said in the press release.

The Met Office forecast doesn’t account for unforeseeable events that would have a temporary cooling effect like large-scale volcanic eruptions.

One of the Met Office’s leading experts in climate prediction Dr. Doug Smith said temperatures in different locations on the planet can deviate significantly from the global average.

“The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world. Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times,” Smith said, as The Guardian reported.

The Met Office forecast issued at the end of last year was for the average global temperature increase for 2022 to be from 0.97 to 1.21 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The data so far for this year — from January to October — has the global average at about 1.16 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

There is no doubt that temperatures around the globe are increasing and humans must act quickly if we are to keep the global average temperature at less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avoid the most severe effects of climate change.

“The full-on gas pedal will invigorate warming over the coming year and continue into the future, along with more severe wet, dry and hot extremes, until policies are in place to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions,” professor of climate science at the University of Reading Richard Allan told BBC News.

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